Dark Clouds & Silver Lining (Week Ahead 10th October 2021)

 Dark Clouds & Silver Lining (Week Ahead 10th October 2021)

The direction of the market looks indecisive with key numbers all over the place. We are going to see JOLT & CPI numbers this week. 

Overview

Indices are red and so is Vix. As on 8 PM EST. Oil continues to show strength. Though Dow is down 2.5% from its all time highs, S&P down 3.4%, Nasdaq & Russel both 5.3%

Indices, Commodities, ETFs & Stocks at 8 pm (Source – Investing.com)

Brent Crude Oil Futures

Brent has so many green candles and RSI with a positive divergence near 75, this week is likely to see some consolidation to slight spike though overall trend line is bullish.

Dow Jones Transportation Average

Higher oil prices add to woes of transport as it adds to the cost of transportation though $DJT is breaking out the regression channel and reducing the gap with Dow Jones Industrial Average. This looks positive.
$DJT & $DJI (Source Think or Swim Desktop Platform )

CBOE Market Volatility Index

Vix seems to be cooling off for the moment though through the week it is something to watch out for as we visit Job Openings (JOLT) report on Tuesday & CPI numbers for September on Wednesday.

 
Volatility Index (Source Think or Swim Desktop Platform )

US Dollar

USD seems to be cooling into a possible consolidation though it is too early to say and we will see a confirmation during the week.

10 Year Treasury Index

10 Year yields rose last week and the trend looks bullish though RSI looks  little oversold. The week may see it consolidating much like the USD. 

GLD & Brent

Gold tends to move in direction of Oil since both are US$ denominated and move in the same direction as inflation. While Oil has remained bullish due to OPEC decision and supply chain issues, Gold has lagged due to strong US$ and Crypto stealing some if its shine. Though this week may see some improvements in Gold. Similar patterns are observed for Ishares Silver Trust ETF – $SLV
Ishared Gold Trust -$GLD & Brent (Source Think or Swim Desktop Platform )

Earnings Reports This Week 

Key Banking and Finance companies come out with earnings on Wednesday onwards. These earnings will reflect on Select Sector SPDR Trust Financial ETF ( $XLF)
$JPM (Estimate EPS: $3.00, Rev: $29.70B), $BLK (Estimate EPS $9.63, Rev $4.88B),
$FRC (Estimate EPS: $1.83, Rev $1.27B),  $BAC (Estimate EPS $0.70, Rev $ 21.66B),
$WFC (Estimate EPS: $1.04, $18.46B), $C (Estimate EPS: $1.73, Rev $17.01B), 
$MS (Estimate EPS: $1.70, $13.67B), $USB (Estimate EPS: $1.16, $5.77B)
Also to watch is $TSM with estimated EPS of $1.03 and Rev of $14.82B. This will give us insight in semiconductor shortage that so far has been frustrating Automobile and other industries. China also reports Automobile Sales numbers this week.

Net Net

It looks like a choppy week ahead with mixed signals. A lot depends on JOLT, CPI & Earnings reports for the week. 

– Mr. Egg Head

10th Oct 2021, NJ, USA

PS:

Please forgive my grammar

Not Investment Advise

Mr. Egg Head

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